The hottest production capacity blowout, low price

2022-07-30
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On May 14, 2019, the investigation report on China's polycarbonate industry (hereinafter referred to as the report) organized by the polycarbonate branch of China synthetic resin supply and marketing association was released in Beijing

the report points out that for many years, polycarbonate has been a new type of polymer engineering material encouraged by the state, and it is also the engineering plastic with the largest consumption in the industry. With the rapid economic development, China's polycarbonate industry has developed rapidly in recent years, and the production capacity of coatings has been increasing. In the past five years, the domestic polycarbonate production capacity has increased from 610000 tons in 2014 to 1205000 tons in 2018, with an average annual growth rate of 18.6%. It is estimated that the domestic polycarbonate production capacity will reach 3.52 million tons/year by 2022, with an average annual growth rate of 30%

in sharp contrast to the rapid growth of production capacity, the downstream application of polycarbonate has entered a low-speed development period, and the overall profit of the industry is worrying

domestic polycarbonate consumption increased from 1.53 million tons in 2014 to 1.84 million tons in 2018, with an average annual growth rate of less than 5%, and the growth rate of production capacity was much higher than that of demand. At present, the self-sufficiency rate of domestic polycarbonate is about 50%. With the release of several new production capacity in the future, the self-sufficiency rate will be greatly increased. It is expected that the domestic polycarbonate production will exceed the demand within this year

the report predicts that the application of polycarbonate in the fields of electronics and electrical, automobile, household appliances, medical treatment, etc. in China will maintain a growth rate of 4% ~ 6% in the next few years. The growth of plate and packaging is closely related to the construction of national infrastructure and laws and regulations, and is expected to maintain a growth rate of 3% ~ 5%. And whether the labels thus made will be completely burned after reprocessing. With the development of new storage methods such as cloud storage and 5g and high-speed network, the optical media market will continue to shrink. On the whole, consumption growth is weak, and the industry has entered a period of low-speed development

to make matters worse, the current market price of polycarbonate has fallen to the bottom. The output value of high-end new material products accounts for more than 60%

at present, the mainstream of polycarbonate market application is bisphenol a polycarbonate, and the price difference between polycarbonate and bisphenol A determines the profit situation. It is generally believed in the industry that the price difference between polycarbonate and bisphenol A is more than 5000 ~ 6000 yuan. Only when polycarbonate challenges the bearing capacity of the environment can the carbonate plant maintain a certain profit

after entering the second half of 2018, the price of polycarbonate fell sharply, and the price difference between polycarbonate and bisphenol a narrowed rapidly, even reaching below 4000 yuan/ton at one time, resulting in widespread losses in the industry. In the future, the price difference between polycarbonate and bisphenol A may remain low for a long time, and the overall profitability of the industry is worrying

on the one hand, there is a "Crazy" investment boom and huge capacity increment, on the other hand, there is a relatively slow growth of downstream demand and a depressed market. In the next three to five years, the entire polycarbonate industry will face greater pressure with the continuous release of the capacity of new units

however, in the field of polycarbonate with high quality and special performance, it is still the market of a few powerful foreign-funded enterprises, and domestic enterprises have not made significant breakthroughs. According to the report, in the long run, at least 500000 tons of polycarbonate imported by China each year cannot be replaced

in the face of the surplus of domestic low-end products and the lack of high-end products, the report puts forward suggestions for the development of the industry: we should strengthen the national macro guidance, and jointly warn the market from the national level, local government level and industry organizations, so that the whole industry can realize the real situation of industrial development and avoid blind and irrational investment. It is feasible to establish and improve the industrial guidance catalogue and appropriately increase the threshold of industrial access. It is suggested that the existing change experiments can only record the large scientific research investment of semi quantitative indicators such as the number of broken coils, enhance the independent research and development ability, improve product quality, enrich product types, and continue to make efforts in high-end products

to this end, duanqingsheng, Secretary General of polycarbonate branch of China synthetic resin Association, said at the press conference that the association would give full play to its platform advantages, find out the development status of the industry, listen to the demands of enterprises, and build a bridge between the government and the industry. In order to provide the basis for enterprises and governments to make industrial decisions and policies, the association will work with relevant enterprises to prepare the polycarbonate industry application and future development direction

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